Bounce Back Candidates for Every Team

(I would like to preface this article by saying absolutely nothing in here was created by AI. This makes me better than Yahoo Sports that has laid off employees and is using AI to create their articles.)

Every year, it is inevitable that players do not live up to expectations, whether that's because of injuries, their situation, or even just a bad year for the player. Instead of being negative and writing a post about players poised for a down year, I decided to be more positive and try to predict which players were due for a bounce back this coming season. Not much is required to make it on the list, just had to have had a player perform worse in 2024 than in 2023. Try and guess the how the order was determined this time.

Ryan - Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman had a tough 2024 for several reasons. Most notably, he suffered from a serious lower back fracture that severely hindered his playing ability. In addition to the injury, Anthony Richardson was not a good passing quarterback and even got benched part way through the year, and got hurt later on, giving the Colts a big problem at that position. Despite the injury and the issues at quarterback, Pittman had 181 fantasy points putting him at WR41 that year.

Pittman has shown that when healthy, he can perform even with less than good QB play, his 2023 season was tremendous putting up 109/1152/4 numbers on 156 targets from Gardner Minshew. Pittman is a good route runner that rarely drops the ball as shown by his route tree (per reception perception) making him a prime candidate for a bounce back if he is healthy during the year.

Tristan - Dak Prescott

Despite popular belief, Dak Prescott is a good quarterback. Dak Prescott has a history of being a good quarterback, throwing for over 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns THREE DIFFERENT TIMES in his career. When Dak starts every game of the season he averages 4100 yards and 28 touchdowns. Those are numbers that bad QBs put up once, but good players do that multiple which is what Dak is. I understand that there is a lack of playoff success from Dak, and he is the highest paid player in the entire league (per year), and sure the contract is quite high for his production but teams are forced to pay QBs like that. Is Dak the guy that will lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl? No he's not one of those guys, but he's still talented and can throw for a bunch of yards and touchdowns which is good for fantasy. With the addition of George Pickens, and the already all-pro level CeeDee Lamb, Dak has the weapons to put up another 4k yard 30td season and should be a good fantasy quarterback again.

Colin - Devonta Smith

Devonta Smith is a very good player, but has an unfortunate situation. Smith might not have the talent to be a true WR1 for a real NFL team, but being behind a top 5 Wide Receiver in AJ Brown is brutal for him, and being in a run heavy offence makes it even worse. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are a top 2 rushing duo in the NFL giving less opportunities to Smith, and to make things even worse, Saquon had an all time rushing season last year totalling over 2000 yards. This is actually a good thing for Devonta Smith, which might be hard to believe. Saquon will not rush for 2000 yards again next year. There will be some regression to the average for Saquon, the offensive line is a little worse with Mekhi Becton leaving, which will force the Eagles to throw more than last year. Devonta Smith is still a talented Wide Receiver that was top 20 in points per game in fantasy last season, if Devonta Smith stays healthy he will easily have a top 20 fantasy season, and with a slight increase in passing Devonta Smith should have a very good season and dare I say close to a top 10 season? Might be too hot of a take but could be close.

Evan - Rashee Rice

This one is pretty simply because I think people are forgetting how good Rashee Rice is. Rashee Rice finished 2023 as WR 29 in points per game, but in his last 5 games that year he averaged 18.9 points which would make him top 10. In 2024 before his injury, Rice had 29 targets in 3 games and put up 72 fantasy points (23.9 ppg) which is elite production. Worthy showed out in his absence being a meaningful target for Patrick Mahomes, but with Rice back healthy this year, I expect Rice to step back into the starting slot role and continue to thrive like he already has. Worthy does not scare me at all, I still believe he is just a gadget guy while Rice is the better true Wide Receiver. Even in the short season last year Rice posted a fantastic route tree, with above average success rate and 6/9 major routes, and was even in the 99th percentile in success rate against zone defence. Rice is still talented and people forget that because Worthy showed some speed last year.

Maysen - Caleb Williams

This choice might be an easy pick based on what happened in the offseason. The Bears were able to sign offensive guru Ben Johnson to be their head coach, traded for two interior offensive linemen, drafted Colston Loveland, Luther Burden and Ozzy Trapilo. Now, the argument could be made that the new system, new receiving options, and new offensive linemen could be an issue for Caleb. A different system to learn in an offseason, little continuity on the O-Line, along with possible chemistry issues with rookie receivers being injured right now could cause problems down the line. But, there is lots of talent on the offence, which should help Caleb improve off of last year. Ben Johnson can make the offence easier for Caleb to digest on the field, the additions to the offensive line give the run game a higher ceiling and more time for Caleb to work with, and the talent receiver group give Caleb several options on every pass play. While it's an easy pick, expect a better season from Caleb.

Geoffrey - Nico Collins

This one is quite simple like the previous pick. Nico Collins is an elite Wide Receiver that put up 280 fantasy points in 2023 putting him in the top 12 at his position. In 2024 Collins started brilliantly with two different 30 point performances and averaged 23.7 points in his first 5 games. Collins unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to miss 5 consecutive games, and it affected him later in the year. In the final seven games Collins only averaged 16 points per game, and drastic 7 point difference. The situation around Nico has changed drastically with Tank Dell getting injured, Stefon Diggs on the Patriots now, and two rookies being drafted. With the lack of experience in the two rookies, Nico looks to be the reliable target for C.J. Stroud as he might be under more pressure this year with the worsening O-Line. Don't be surprised if Nico returns to the elite play that he achieved in 2023 and puts up a similar route tree.

Robert - Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel has had some down years lately with the 49ers, struggled with catching the ball, and wasn't even in game shape for most of the year. Deebo also isn't like most receivers in that he doesn't truly lineup in one specific spot on the field and beats man coverage with exceptional route running skills. Deebo is best known for his speed and agility with the ball in his hands, and often took rushing attempts to effectively get him the ball. In multiple different years, the two most often routes deebo ran were slants, digs, and screens. All these routes give him a better chance at getting yards after the catch. Deebo is a perfect fit for the Washington Commanders (bias? possibly) because of his unique skill set as a wide receiver. The Commanders ran 56 Wide Receiver screens in 2024 which tied them for 2nd in the entire NFL. The Commanders do not have anyone as agile or fast as Deebo is (or maybe was), making him the perfect fit to take this offence to another level, and give Deebo a specific and consistent role on his new team. In Deebo's down year he averaged 7 yards per target on screen passes, which nearly doubles what the Commanders averaged on screen passes making this a perfect fit and if Deebo gets into shape (last year of his contract he needs to have a good year to get another contract) he is due for another big year in fantasy.

Josh - No One?

Josh owns a very unique roster for multiple reasons. One of those reasons being a mix of unproven young players, and a group of older players that have been performing to the top of their abilities. Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, and Terry Mclaurin just had career years, David Montgomery continues to split carries with Gibbs, Jameson Williams continues to improve, and 3 other starters have not accumulated enough seasons for a "bounce back" to be possible (Jayden Daniels, Tetairoa McMillan, Tyler Warren).

Josh's bench contains many handcuff running backs that do not have the down year or the starting potential to have a bounce back, and the wide receiver and tight end bench groups do not have the situations for a bounce back. All in all this roster contains many talented players, but none of them fit the "bounce back" criteria which is a little odd for a dynasty roster.

Ethan - Calvin Ridley

Some might remember Calvin Ridley on the Falcons as an elite wide receiver that put up over 1300 yards and 9 touchdowns as he was WR5 in 2020. Ridley has dealt with injuries, suspension, and not great quarterback play over the last 5 years that has led to only 1 finish inside the top 20 since 2020. Calvin Ridley is still a very talented wide receiver, and while he has lost some juice, he can still be a productive wide receiver for the Titans who brought in the hopeful next franchise Quarterback in Cam Ward.

Despite the very green route tree, Ridley was confined to the sole X-Receiver in Jacksonville, which isn't fully suitable to his type of game, but in Tennessee he lined up at both on the line X, and as a flanker getting him to move around and work at all levels of the field. This suits his game better, and Cam Ward can support wide receivers. In college Cam Ward's top target was Xavier Restrepo who put up over 1100 yards 11 touchdowns. If Cam Ward has a better season than Will Levis (very very low bar), look for Calvin Ridley to have a better year than previously.

Lukas - Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was believed to be a generational wide receiver that would be just as talented and successful as his father. His rookie year was far from expectations but was still a productive year for a rookie. A line of 62 catches, 885 yards and 8 touchdowns is really good for a rookie year, but I think Marv can still hit that next level. Marvin Harrison Jr's. route tree was more successful than you would believe from how he was talked about this year. Putting up above average success rates in 6/9 routes on the route tree. I always say that one of the two most important things for a wide receiver, is the ability to get open, and Marv can do that at all three levels of the field, making him the most important wide receiver on the field for the Cardinals.

Per Reception Perception, Marv also hit important markers in his success rate vs Man, Zone and Press coverage (80% vs Zone and 70% vs Man and Press). These markers shows that no matter the coverage, Marv can run a successful route and Kyler can trust that Marv will be open no matter what the defence decides to play. The only thing holding Marv back from becoming a star, is how the Cardinals utilize him. Early on in the year, Marv was lineup on the line as a X receiver, which is something very few teams do, players very often get moved around the field. Marv should be moved around the field and off the line of scrimmage sometimes to get more out of him as a receiver. The Arizona Cardinals did not pick up another wide receiver in the draft or through free agency, making Marv the clear WR1 again for this team, and with chemistry continue to build between him and Kyler Murray, Marv could be in for a larger role and a better year than previous. Could very easily see him have a line of 85 catches, 1000 yards, and a similar amount of touchdowns.

Thank you for reading another one of my blog posts, I hope I made good choices for every team. If you disagree with any of my picks I will gladly argue over any one of them. My next blog post should be coming in the middle of the month, and look out for it because it will be draft/college related. I will be getting more people excited about college with it.