One Breakout Player for Every Team

There is always one unexpected player that outperforms expectations. Sometimes it's a guy that got an opportunity after an injury, or its just a good player finally getting his time to shine. I am here in an attempt to predict one player on every team I feel is likely to breakout. Before starting, it is important to note what type of player counts as a breakout candidate.

The requirements are fairly lax but no rookies will be selected, and preferably each player will NOT have a top 20 point season for Wide Receivers/Running Backs or top 10 point season for Quarterbacks and Tight Ends as breakout in this context would mean from going to nearly unstartable to top 20/10 at their position. I highlight "preferably" because in some cases they were already in that 20/10 spot but haven't been there in some time and people have either given up or underrating them in my opinion. Additionally, I am more likely to choose 2nd/3rd/4th year players over old vets or rookies. Obviously lofty expectations for some of these players, but breakouts are often unexpected.

Robert - Dontayvion Wicks

This one might come as a shock to some people because Wicks has butter fingers and struggled to catch the football this year. Drops are a little subjective as PFF charts Wicks with 8 drops while Pro-football reference and fantasypros chart Wicks with 9 drops on the year but both numbers put him in the top 10 in drops which is bad. And you might be thinking, "Robert, they just drafted Matthew Golden in the 1st round and told Jayden Reed he is still the first option how is it possible that Wicks breaks out this year??" Well both those things are true but Jayden Reed didn't even finish as the #1 guy in targets for the Packers, that was Wicks. Leading the team in targets means that not only does the coaching staff still trust him, putting him out there despite the drops, but also that Love is still willing to throw him the ball. Wicks also is a good route runner, according to Reception Perception he is putting up above average success rates at 5 different routes on the tree meaning he is reliable at getting enough separation for passes.

The only thing holding Wicks back from a breakout is if the drops continue to be a problem. He's got the talent, got the trust, just needs to catch the ball and he will be not only a good nfl player but also a good fantasy football player.

Colin - Brenton Strange

Colin's team doesn't feature a ton of 2nd/3rd/4th year guys that could be poised for a breakout but to me the most likely is Brenton Strange for a few reasons. Obviously the departure of Evan Engram is huge for Strange. Evan Engram produced two top 5 TE seasons with the Jaguars with an impressive TE 2 230 points in 2023 which suggests that Strange could be in for a breakout season with Trevor Lawrence healthy. The Jags did draft Travis Hunter this year and Brian Thomas Jr. was a standout Wide Receiver last year but I still believe that Strange can still have a good portion of targets in that offence. The departure of Christian Kirk vacates plenty of targets as he was a safety net for Lawrence in the past and often times, Tight Ends are safety nets for QBs which bodes well for Strange. The last thing that gives Strange hope for the breakout is the comments from recently hired GM James Gladstone who said Strange will "have a part in the offense, moving forward, in a way we haven't seen yet," which is interesting considering that their new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen is heralded as a fantastic OC especially with what he did in Tampa Bay last year resurrecting that offence. Look out for Strange to take over the Tight End spot from Kelce on this roster.

Josh - Kyle Pitts... Just Kidding It's Trevor Lawrence

Despite the new coaching staff and the rise of 1st round pick Michael Penix Jr. I did not pick Kyle Pitts to be the breakout player for this team. Trevor Lawrence goes a little hand in hand with the previous selection as Brenton Strange being good, helps out Trevor Lawrence. Trevor hasn't had the career expected for the 'generational' 1st overall pick, but still shows elite traits but has been riddled with injuries the last couple seasons. I personally am still a believer in Lawrence and his talent, and with the offseason additions to this team, Lawrence could be in for a very good year. Lawrence is still an accurate passer to all levels of the field and has elite arm strength giving him an edge on deep passes.

The addition of Travis Hunter gives Lawrence another electric Wide Receiver to pair with Brian Thomas Jr. which significantly upgrades an average group last year. Lastly, the addition of Liam Coen, a highly regarded coach will give Lawrence a big boost in better schemes, and playcalling. I would predict Lawrence to have a 4000 yard 30 td year with the new additions and scheme upgrade.

Tristan - Isaac Guerendo

Despite the love this team has for Sincere McCormick, he will not be a breakout player with the Raiders drafting Ashton Jeanty #6 overall to take a large majority of the work. Isaac Guerendo has already flashed real talent at the position averaging 5 yards per carry and 5.8 per carry in games getting at least 10 rushing attempts. Guerendo is fast, agile and able to create breakaway runs and pairs well with newly drafted Jordan James. James is a powerback out of Oregon giving them a Monty-Gibbs-esque duo to backup Christian McCaffrey. While Guerendo himself struggled with injuries last season, he was an electric player when given the chance and CMC still has injuries concerns and Jordan Mason is on Minnesota now. Guerendo won't get the full workload if CMC were to go down, but will be in a beneficial duo with James getting more outside zone carries as his speed and agility can be tough for linebackers to get to the sidelines to tackle him. Guerendo is a big play maker with his 4.33 speed and his only limitation is CMC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDShmv5Evx8

Lukas - Theo Johnson

There were not many candidates on this roster I felt very good about a breakout this coming season. The other option I was mulling over was Demario Douglas but with the acquisition of Diggs and Kyle Williams, a breakout was less than likely to me. Theo Johnson flashed some talent last season but suffered a season ending foot injury that required surgery. Johnson never passed even 60 yards in a single game, but his 5 game stretch totaling 27 targets 18 catches and 216 are respectable numbers for a rookie tight end with less than average QB play. While Russell Wilson, or Jaxson Dart might not be the biggest upgrades, Johnson could see more reliable targets every week and could crack an average 10-12 points per game which would be close to top 10 for Tight Ends. While not the biggest or flashiest breakout, Johnson is the backup Tight End on this roster that will fill in during bye weeks and possible injuries but could still be a useful asset to this team.

Geoffrey - Michael Penix Jr.

In college Michael Penix thrived on launching deep passes to Rome Odunze, Ja'lynn Polk, and Jalen Mcmillan . Those are 2 fantastic NFL caliber wide receivers, and now in the NFL Penix gets to throw passes to Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts. Penix has plenty of talent to throw to, and flashed some good talent in just 3 starts. Totaling over 700 yards in those 3 games. Penix has shown he can put up stats and even finishing as QB7 in week 18 with an impressive 25 fantasy points. Penix isn't mobile and has to rely on purely passing to get fantasy points but is a gunslinger and will live and die by the long ball. It is something he thrived on in college, and even in 3 starts last year he showed he is the same QB launching deep passes to Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Penix could very well not workout, but he is an exciting possibility for this team who plays a fun brand of football.

Maysen - Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall was an exciting prospect for the 49ers that had hoped he would help them get over the hump and win a championship. Pearsall unfortunately suffered an offseason injury getting shot while being robbed for his Rolex. He was thankfully okay and ended up returning for week 7 last year and in week 10 after the bye, put up 4 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. Pearsall struggled with other injuries but finally had two huge games in week 17 and 18 putting up 31 and 20 points. Pearsall has the possibility of being the Wide Receiver 1 for this team with Deebo being traded, and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from an acl tear making him a likely breakout candidate.

Pearsall in his short time playing put up a very good route tree with especially high success rates on 5/9 routes (not including screens) making him an impressive route runner. In addition, according to Reception Perception Pearsall put up the good benchmark numbers of 70% success rate against man coverage and 80% against zone coverage. Meaning Pearsall is a good route runner, and has success against both types of coverages. Pearsall has the situation, and talent to be successful and I think he can breakout big this year.

Ryan - Drake Maye

Drake Maye was thrust in as the starter in week 6 after some really bad Jacoby Brissett games and thrived immediately throwing for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns as QB 10 that week in fantasy. Maye continued to play well despite the lack of receiving talent having 4 top 10 finishes in fantasy averaging 14 fantasy points per game. In the offseason the Patriots added Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Williams giving Maye two good targets. Diggs is a question coming back from his ACL tear and being 31 years old but he played very well last year for the Texans. Kyle Williams is a talented outside receiver that can get open anywhere on the field. Williams also posted the 70/80 success rate against Man and Zone coverage in college making him a reliable target for Maye. My last point is that Maye is more mobile than you would think. He put up 400 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns last year, and if he plays the whole season, those numbers will increase. The touchdowns will certianly increase with an improved offence which gives him a higher ceiling than a traditional pocket passer. With the new additions at Wide Receiver, Drake Maye has all the talent to be a very successful fantasy Quarterback for this team.

Ethan - Not a breakout but I still believe in Brandon Aiyuk

This team doesn't have many younger players that I believe could breakout this year, so I'm gonna use this time to spread Aiyuk propaganda. Despite popular belief, Brandon Aiyuk is a very good football player. The most important part of being a Wide Receiver, is getting open and catching the ball. Aiyuk is ELITE at getting open. In 2023 (Aiyuks last full season) he ranked in the 96th percentile in success rate against man coverage and 91st percentile against zone coverage. Not only that but his route tree success rate looks like a Christmas Tree. Above average at every single route. Brandon Aiyuk gets open like the best of players.

This guy also catches the ball. In 2023 he only had 2 drops for a 2.3 drop percentage. In contested targets, Reception Perception said Aiyuk caught 83.3% of his contested targets. Aiyuk gets open and catches the ball at a very high level which is what you want from your receivers. Lastly, Pro Football Focus graded Aiyuk as the number 2 best Wide Receiver in 2023 and even in his down year in 2024 he was an average Wide Receiver with a 74.6 grade. I know that Aiyuk is coming off an ACL tear, and that could limit him just this year, but he has two years of being a top 15 fantasy wide receiver I believe that he has the talent to get back to being the number 1 guy on the 49ers.

Evan - J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy suffered an unfortunate torn meniscus during the offseason last year stripping him from his rookie year. Sam Darnold filled in and unexpectedly impressive 4000 yards 30 touchdown year with the Vikings going 14-3. Darnold fell apart in the last two games as teams blitzed him to hell, Darnold started seeing ghosts and reverted back to his very bad play. I am very confident that J.J. McCarthy is a better QB than Darnold giving him an even higher ceiling than what Darnold just did. The combination of elite receiving corps, top end coaching with Kevin O'Connell, and the increase in QB talent, gives McCarthy a good shot at breaking out and being a very good fantasy Quarterback. The accuracy that McCarthy showed in college is nothing to marvel over, its just average at best. At Michigan he wasn't asked to do a lot in the passing game, their run game dominated. But that isn't because he can't be an effective passer. McCarthy is a tough passer and doesn't jump when pressured, something that Darnold frequently did. McCarthy stands in the pocket and delivers confident passes under pressure and doesn't lose accuracy or power on the run, which will surely give him a high ceiling in the NFL.

This concludes the breakout players list, I hope you enjoyed me hyping up one of your players for a breakout. If you hoped a different player would be on this list, they will also breakout and you will have the best team in the league. Always be on the lookout for future posts, but I usually plan for posts on the 1st of each month in the offseason.