Post Draft Stock Up/Stock Down

(Nothing in this post was created using any sort of generative AI)

Tyler Allgeier Stock down

With the Cardinals surprising the NFL by drafting Jeremiyah Love at #3 overall, that leaves Allgeier in limbo once again but still a top handcuff. You start to feel bad for the guy. 1000 yard rusher as a rookie, replaced by Bijan. Is a really good backup, signs a deal with the Cardinals to become the starter, and then they draft Love. Really unfortunate for him as he is relegated from a potential weekly starter to a good handcuff once again. Love projects to be a star in this league with him being a similarly rated prospect to Ashton Jeanty last year. Despite this, Love could struggle early on with the Cardinals having a bad team and will likely be in passing situations more often than rushing ones.

Every RB other than Allgeier Stock up

Aside from Tyler Allgeier, every other running back's (except maybe RJ Harvey) stock is up after the draft. You might be thinking "the Seahawks drafted Jadarian Price at 32, how is Zach Charbonnet's stock up?" And that's a good question but taking into account Charbs' injury, it starts to make sense. In January, Charbonnet tore his acl, and even with a quick 9 month recovery, that would make his first game in October mid way through the season. The Seahawks were not going to wait until midseason for him to come back. Running out Emanuel Wilson and George Holani was not something they wanted to do. Grabbing Price at the end of the 1st makes sense for the team, AND for Charbs who might not even be up to game speed when he returns.

As for everyone else, the NFL is telling you how they feel about this running back class. Two running backs in the first round (means they are good), then none drafted in round 2 and only one drafted in round 3. That third rounder you’d think is good, but was consensus RB14 on the talking heads' big boards. Average 49ers draft pick I guess but taking a player at 90 when their consensus ranking was passed 200 is not only bad GM-ing, but a massive risk that did not need to be taken (they have a history of reaching on players and it hasn’t worked out for them). Generally, everyone else is a stock up because teams did not invest significant draft capital in a backup or replacement for their starters.

The only exception could be RJ Harvey as the Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman in the 4th round. To me that is just them being proactive for if JK Dobbins misses any time due to injury like he has in the past. It just further confirms that the Broncos will be a committee whether that is Harvey and Dobbins or Harvey and Coleman. Other than that, every running back is safe from the draft this year.

Cam Ward/Tyler Shough Stock up

These two second year quarterbacks are stock up because both teams drafted wide receivers with their first round pick. The Titans selected Carnell Tate at number 4 overall out of Ohio State. Tate was drafted to be the number 1 alpha receiver in that room with Elic, Dike, Ridley, and Wandale surrounding him. Tate brings a sort of reliability that the rest of those players don't. Tate is a great route runner that can get open at all levels of the field, and his 0% drop rate in 2025 is exactly what Ward needs after throwing to Ridley for one year. Tate will be Ward's best friend on passing downs, as a player that Ward can trust every single time, increasing Ward's weekly floor and ceiling for fantasy. With the new #1 receiver, Ward should take a big step forward in year two.

Tyler Shough also benefits with a new wide receiver as the Saints may have grabbed the best one of the draft. Jordyn Tyson is a fantastic player with tremendous upside, but has significant injury concerns. He has missed dozens of games in college due to an acl tear, broken collarbone, and missed several games this year with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the combine. If healthy, the Olave-Tyson pairing has the potential to form a highly productive duo giving Shough an underrated wide receiver room, with another rookie in Bryce Lance. Drafted in the 4th round, Lance brings size and speed at 6' 3 and running a 4.34 40 yard dash. While not a great route runner, if Lance catches the ball he can gain several extra yards with his speed and agility making him an interesting piece for this receiving room. If Shough can continue to develop into the QB no one thought he would be, the improved skill positions (Travis Etienne as well to help the run game), could translate into a significant rise in fantasy production.

2027 QB Prospects Stock up

Little bit of a different one here, since these QBs are an unknown, but the surrounding players are significantly improved on some of the QB needy teams. The Cardinals, Browns, and Jets all made their teams look like a very desirable destination for the rookies of next year. The Cardinals added Jeremiyah Love to an offence that already has Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Tyler Allgeier. As far as rookie situations go, hard to get better than this one. A solid run game to take pressure off a rookie, with some reliable targets in the passing game. While their offensive line could use some work, the Cardinals have the offensive pieces to be a good spot for a rookie Qb next year

The Browns added 3 different players in the draft this year that drastically changes the situation for a rookie next draft. They drafted Spencer Fano at #9 to give them a better pass protector on the left side of the oline, and a versatile player that can play both tackle spots. The next two picks were KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. KC Concepcion is a route technician that can get open at all levels of the field. While not a YAC threat, his ability to create separation on a wide variety of routes makes him a reliable target for a young QB. Boston is a typical X-Receiver that will run those deep routes and make contested catches. Boston will catch everything thrown at him putting up an impressive 77.8% catch rate on contested targets. These three players made up a fantastic draft class that create a desirable situation for a future rookie. Their skill position players are sick. Concepcion, Boston, Jeudy, Fannin, Judkins, and Sampson is a really good groups of players.

Lastly, the Jets. I personally really liked their draft this year, especially grabbing two offensive weapons in the first round. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson will finally have some reinforcements coming in with the Jets drafting Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. (two of my guys in the draft). Sadiq provides a great receiving option for the Jets with his combination of athleticism and route running. He can run every route on the tree, and is a mismatch for both linebackers and safeties with his athleticism. Cooper will be a great slot receiver for whoever is throwing the ball. With zone defence becoming more and more prevalent, it is increasingly more important for receivers to be successful against zone. Cooper boasted an 82% success rate against zone making him a reliable target for a young QB.

Jordan Love Stock down

One of the biggest holes on the Packers team is the wide receiver position. Last year they trotted out Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden at that position. While they all missed varying time, it was clear that not having a clear number 1 guy that is reliable at all times was an issue for this team and Jordan Love. While they used their 1st round pick on acquiring Micah Parsons, which is a massive gain for the defence, they didn't use ANY of their other draft picks on a WR. What makes things worse is that they LOST Romeo Doubs in free agency and did not do anything to replace him. They had an issue at receiver last year and proceeded to allow it to get worse. While Tucker Kraft will return after his devastating injury, you need more than just a player coming back from injury to help this WR room. I could see Love taking a step back this year after the team got worse at receiver.

The Jaguars? Stock down

Simply put, the most confusing draft ever. They don't have a 1st round pick after trading it away last draft to move up for Travis Hunter. He will be a good corner and sometimes receiver for them. In the 2nd round, at pick 56, they drafted TE Nate Boekircher. Now, I am someone that tries to watch a lot of college football and follows the draft a ton, I have never heard of this guy. He was a 5 year college TE putting up 19 receptions in his first 4 years at Nebraska, then transferred to Texas A&M and put up 19 receptions for 198 yards. The guy just did not produce at all and did not show a lot. On the consensus board, he was 163rd, meaning the Jags reached over 100 picks ahead of where people thought he would go. If you argued that they needed a good blocking TE behind Brenton Strange, I would agree, and that makes sense. But that would only make sense if Boekircher was actually good at blocking. He simply isn't, and was just a waste of a 2nd round pick. Then they drafted Albert Regis, a defensive tackle from Texas A&M who is a solid prospect, but not for a 3rd rounder. They just continue to reach for every selection. Then the Jags lucked into one of the best values of the draft in Emmanuel Pregnon. He was mocked in the first round for much of the draft cycle so getting him in the 3rd is exceptional value. Then they go with a CB in Jalen Huskey. Taken with the 100th pick, he is still over 80 spots ahead of where experts expected him to go (187 on the consensus board), another head scratching pick. The trend continued into the 4th round with them taking Wesley Williams, an Edge Rusher from Duke, but again drafted over 100 spots ahead of where experts expected. Then in the 5th, they drafted Tanner Koziol out of Houston. He's pretty good for a 5th rounder and would be a better pick if they didn't take Boekircher for whatever reason. Rest of the draft is two 6th and two 7th round selections that do not really matter, I'm just so confused on why they reached on so many players.

It might be important to clarify a little about the "consensus big board" that I have mentioned a couple times. Arif Hasan, former writer for the Athletic and ProFootball Network, combines the big boards with over a hundred experienced draft analysts. The strengths of the big board are that all of the contributors are independent of each other and while they will frequently share opinions with one another, they can very easily come to different conclusions based on the same tape. "Groupthink" will generally not occur with a list of players like this because analysts will always be high on specific traits of a player while a different set of analysts would not care as much about those traits. While the big board can't directly grade the NFL draft picks, the big board has shown in the past to be generally AS good as the NFL.

Please go read this article it is great. https://www.wideleft.football/p/the-2026-nfl-consensus-big-board?open=false#%C2%A7is-this-any-good-for-judging-teams

This is quite surprising, but shows how smart draft analysts are getting in the modern era of football. With more and more analytics being provided along with game tape being distributed to more and more people, it has become easier to evaluate each player's talent and rank them against each other. While reaching on a player that consensus has lower isn't always a bad thing, it most of the time is, and is why teams like the 49ers (or Jaguars in this instance), have had some disastrous draft classes recently.

All that to say, I think the Jaguars draft really sucked, except for Emmanuel Pregnon.

The Raiders/Whichever WR they draft next year Stock up

I really liked what the Raiders did this draft. Mendoza was the clear pick at number 1, he is a solid, reliable, accurate passer. Think Jared Goff, Joe Burrow archetype (not that he will be those guys, but plays like them. Accurate pocket passers). That pick was chalk and everyone knew it for several months when Dante Moore decided to go back to school. They drafted a really good safety/nickel corner in Traydan Stukes, and a solid Edge in Keyron Crawford to help out their defence. Then to help out their offensive line, they grabbed Trey Zuhn, a really, really solid guard. ESPN has him as the backup center to Tyler Linderbaum, but I think he could be a starting guard for this team, the unit was quite bad last year. He would be a sure upgrade. Lastly, they stopped the fall of Jermod McCoy. In 2024, Jermod McCoy was seen as a can't miss cornerback prospect that could lock up anyone he played against. He unfortunately missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but despite that looking healthy, it seems he could need another surgery. He has a bone plug that was used to repair a cartilage defect and apparently there is concern that he would need another surgery that would require an "extensive" recovery process. This sort of injury/recovery concern is why a player of his talent level fell all the way into the 4th round. The Raiders don't particularly have much to play for (they aren't contending just yet), so if McCoy does or does not work out, spending a 4th isn't a tremendous investment. The risk vs reward here is high on both sides and I love the gamble. Lastly, they drafted Mike Washington Jr. out of Arkansas. I think he's going to be a good backup to Ashton Jeanty and will be able to be a "replacement" level player when they give Jeanty some rest. Overall I really liked what the Raiders did in this draft, they addressed the defence, drafted a solid guard, and drafted a depth running back. The biggest issues might still be the offensive line, but Mendoza is a good enough player to get the ball out quickly so that isn't as big of an issue. I do wish they addressed the wide receiver though, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech, Dont'e Thornton, and Malik Benson is not a suitable receiving room. I do like most of those guys in limited roles but not to hold up an entire offence. Next draft they will certainly (should) load up on receivers especially with Jeremiah Smith at the top of everyone's draft board next year. Good draft, but still more to build.

Tua Tagovailoa Stock up

Tua was recently cut from the Dolphins and signed a short-term deal with the Atlanta Falcons with Michael Penix recovering from another significant knee injury. Tua doesn't have the greatest fit with the Falcons mostly because of Drake London. He is a fantastic receiver that can play anywhere on the field, but is best when down the field. Tua is known for struggling with the deep passes, on accuracy and strength. Kyle Pitts is the only other notable receiver on the team, and he (if he tried) would be best at deep routes similar to London, but maybe Stefanski unlocks him this year. The biggest reason why I believe that Tua is a stock up is because of Zachariah Branch. Branch was a 3rd round pick out of Georgia, and I think he is going to be Tua's best friend on the Falcons. Branch is like Deebo if he was skinnier. Deebo worked great as a screen and RB because he could handle the hits he was taking. Branch is thinner and there is some concern over that, but he is electric with the ball in his hands. Get him a screen pass and he can easily make several players miss and get those yards after the catch. I say this is a match made in heaven because Branch doesn't really run many routes in the intermediate or deep part of the field (10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage). Screens, slants, flat routes, are what Branch excels at making him an easy, short target for Tua. I think Stefanski can make that duo work quite well for the Falcons.