Week 1 Overreactions

(Nothing in this post was created using any sort of generative AI)

The NFL is back for another great season and we are back for another great year of fantasy. I have already made predictions, told you who was going to breakout for your team, and had a nice look into the past to remind you of your worst trades. Now it is time for everyone's favourite part of the season starting. Overreacting. Nothing beats overreacting to the first week of the season when teams are still trying to figure out how they will run their offence and defence during the year. Week 1 had some highs and lows, some players scoring 30 points, and some scoring 0, and I am here to tell you that everything matters.

Kaelon Black is the leading rusher for the 49ers

The Thursday Night Football game in Australia, was highlighted by a 49ers blowout win over the Rams. During the game, Kaelon Black led the team in rushing attempts with 14, while Christian McCaffrey only had 10. While it might not seem like a big difference, it should become a bigger trend over the next few games. Black looked pretty solid during the game, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and even added on one catch for 5 yards. The reason this is significant is because it helps take the load off of McCaffrey, their star player. The 49ers know that not every regular season game matters significantly, so they don't want to run McCaffrey into the ground early in the season. They will want to save him a ltitle for when the games matter. That is where Black comes in. Kaelon Black, the fresh young rookie, can take on most of the rushing work, and save McCaffrey for the receving work and keep him healthy for later in the season. Will Black be the leading rusher for the 49ers at the end of the season? Maybe. If he continues to play as well as he did in week 1, he could have himself a decent year.

Antonio Williams is the leading receiver for the Commanders

The Commanders had a surprisingly close game against the Eagles during the 4pm slate of games. They game just one play away from tying it on a 2-point conversion. On their way to bringing the game within 2 points, the Commanders relied on Williams to get there. Williams had a key 14 yard catch early in the drive to get them a 1st down, and then was responsible for the touchdown by barely catching the ball before it hit the ground. Williams led the Commanders this week with 4 catches and 64 yards, and was reliable for Jayden Daniels who struggled today. Williams even out produced Terry McLaurin who only had 2 catches for 14 yards a brutal day. Williams showed that he can be a reliable player for Daniels even when the team is struggling which is going to be valuable for this team. The offensive line will cause problems for this team so having Williams as the reliable number 1 guy should be huge, especially if Terry is going to struggle.

Jalen Coker to the moon

Coker was a really hyped up player during the offseason, and the victory laps have started. 8 receptions for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns for over 30 fantasy points is a HUGE week for him. Currently ranking as the top fantasy scorer for wide receivers, Coker easily led the Panthers in all three categories en route to 37 points for the offence. While the team got blown out and gave up 59 points, the Panthers offence looked really good, especially when throwing to Coker. Coker is starting his breakout season and looks like he could be an elite fantasy player. While Coker was seen in a walking boot after the game, he said that he rolled his ankle in the first quarter and should be good to go for next week.

Start every Bears player because they have the best offence

The Bears had a fantastic offensive day on Sunday scoring 59 points (in just 60 minutes). In 75 offensive plays the Bears also hung 552 total yards on the Panthers for a historic game in the modern era. The game was highlighted by D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combining for 224 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns. Even with the fantastic rushing performance, Caleb was able to throw for over 250 yards and 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Simply put, this is a fantastic offence and there are several players that you can start every week just because of how good this offence is. Your specific guy might not be the feature guy every single game but with how high the ceiling is for this offence, I wouldn't want to miss out on starting a Bear.

Packers receivers will eat this year

The Packers fell apart in the 4th quarter on Sunday vs the Vikings after a fumble and interception led to two touchdowns for Minnesota. Despite the loss, the Packers receviers were eating. Golden had 12 targets going 6 - 95, Watson 8 targets going 6 - 147 and 2 touchdowns and Kraft had 6 targets as well. This was largely due to how inefficient the Packers run game was. MarShawn Lloyed and Chris Brooks combined to have 20 rushing attempts and only totaled 66 total yards. Just 3.3 yards per carry. Without Josh Jacobs this rushing attack will be little to no threat each week. This is where the receivers will eat. The Packers will be forced to throw much more often, giving more and more targets to guys like Watson, Golden, and Kraft. Those three guys should eat every week (as long as they are healthy), and should have really big seasons. Could start the three of them each week and feel good about it.

Isaiah Likely is the TE1

The Giants took on the Cowboys at home for Sunday Night Football and two things stuck out. First, the Cowboys defence is abysmal. They could not make tackles, and adjustments were not made. The Giants threw 4 consecutive passes to the running back out of the backfield and the Cowboys didn't make any adjustments. They let the Giants get free completions and eventually score. Second, Isaiah Likely is going to go crazy this season. Malik Nabers wasn't fully confident in his health coming into this game and was on a snap limit, but the guy who kept the offence going was Likely. Caught all 8 targets for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. Likely was clearly the relibale target for Jaxson Dart and it was working to perfection. Likely was always open and caught every target. With how much he was used, he can rival Trey McBride for TE1 this year.

Falcons offence is only Bijan Robinson

The Falcons faced off against the Steelers in what was really a snoozefest. The Steelers are an average team at best, and the Falcons are also an average team at best. The problem for the Falcons is that not only were they not starting their QB1, but they weren't starting their QB2 either. Cooper Rush was the starter for the Falcons and that was a recipe for disaster for the Falcons. Without anyone competent to pass the ball, the Falcons only have one offensive weapon. Bijan Robinson. Bijan Robinson rushed 21 times for 83 yards, a whatever performance for him, but was the leading receiver with 8 receptions and 90 yards (plus a touch down). Rush completed just 4 passes that were not to Robinson. That is not a functional offence. But for fantasy, Bijan is firmly in RB1 conversations because he will rack up huge ppr points from being the only player Rush can consistently get the ball too.

Kenneth Walker is an elite back

Kenneth Walker was very highly ranked after his move to Kansas City, being the only rushing threat for the Chiefs. There were some reservations surrounding his ability to take on the workhorse role, but was being drafted as the RB11. That might have been too low for him. In his first game with the Chiefs, Walker exploded for over 150 yards on 23 carries and a touchdowns That is a massive game for Walker and it was even against a good Denver Broncos defence. To pair with the monster rushing day, Walker also had 3 catches for 18 yards and a touchdown showing that he can be an every down back. Additionally, the Chiefs could not pass at all. Mahomes was just 15/27 on his passes and was a total non threat. Mahomes should eventually get back to being a better passer as he recovers more from his injury, but Walker will be an every week 30 point threat he is just that good.

I hope you enjoyed overreacting to week 1 with me and let me know what your overreactions are for week 1.